Speculation that the ruling coalition Barisan Nasional might call for a snap general election has gained traction over the past few months, fuelled by developments such as the government’s backtracking on several unpopular proposals.
Policy reversals have affected plans to introduce a goods and services tax, license petty traders selling essential food items like sugar and flour and legalise sports betting.
The latest “signal” came when the government decided to increase parliamentary constituency allocations from RM1 million to RM1.5 million at the beginning of this month, but are these so-called “signs” what they are made out to be? More crucially, is BN strong enough to call nationwide polls just two years and four months after it suffered the worst setback in Malaysian election history?
Signals and surprises
While the recent retreats from implementing unpopular policies signal that the government is concerned with public opinion, they are no means a strong hint that a snap election is on the way.
In 1999, just a little over four years after the last general election, then prime minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad took everyone by surprise when he dissolved Parliament while Dewan Rakayt was still in session in November, and Malaysia had its 10th General Election on Nov 29. Dr Mahathir was scheduled for an overseas trip but cancelled it at the last minute and caught the opposition by surprise with his decision to call for polls.
DAP’s political strategist Liew Chin Tong (Bukit Bendera) remembers that only opposition veteran Lim Kit Siang (Ipoh Timur-DAP) had rightly predicted the general election of 1999.
Voters waiting for their turn to get into the voting room during the 2008 election. Photo by Kenny Yap
“I think Dr Mahathir took the opportunity from a statement made by PAS spiritual leader and Kelantan Menteri Besar Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat about how a Chinese could also be prime minister one day.
“Amid all of BN’s troubles with the Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim issue, they used Nik Aziz’s statement during the general election campaign,” said Liew in an interview last week.
While the opposition was caught unawares by Dr Mahathir’s call for a fresh mandate in 1999, the 2004 polls were more predictable.
“We were already prepared for Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi’s call for fresh polls. Opinion polls for Abdullah were at around 91% and BN was riding high,” said Liew.
According to Liew, who has now run three general election campaigns for DAP, one of the ground indications that plans for polls are afoot is the renting of premises nationwide and training of Election Commission workers, who consist mostly of government workers.
“So far, we haven’t seen any such signs,” he explained.
Why hold a snap election?
One theory put forward by political pundits is that Sarawak’s five-year mandate is due to expire by June next year and the state is expected to hold elections anytime between October 2010 and February 2011.
These observers suggest that holding simultaneous elections for Sarawak and the rest of the country will once again synchronise the country’s election system.
Others say holding a full general election will enable BN to stretch Pakatan Rakyat’s limited election machinery. By tying down the opposition in Peninsular Malaysia, BN faces a smaller chance of losing its vote banks in Sabah and Sarawak.
Holding a snap election soon would also help BN avoid the problem of having to deal with the group of young and new voters coming into the system.
Indications from the past 10 by-elections are that the younger voters prefer Pakatan Rakyat.
With the opposition having registered more new voters (54.56%) last year, BN has more to lose with the expected bigger voter pool in 2013.
According to the Election Commission, there are 4.3 million, or 27.8%, unregistered voters as at February 2010.
It’s not just for political considerations that BN may want to opt for a snap general election instead of waiting. It stands to be handsomely rewarded if it recaptures Selangor and Penang — the two richest states in the country — and Kedah. The three were among five states lost to Pakatan Rakyat during the last general election. Perak returned to BN’s fold after three state assembly members quit their parties last year and pledged their allegiance to a BN state government.
Besides the political significance of retaking Selangor, the state also holds the key to a number of projects the federal government plans to implement.
In the 10th Malaysia Plan, the federal government has already identified projects in Petaling Jaya, Subang Jaya, Ampang Jaya and Shah Alam to be developed in its “Greater Kuala Lumpur” plan. But with Selangor in “hostile” hands, BN is expected to face resistance over land issues as the state holds the power over land transfers and conversions of land use status.
Risks for BN in snap polls
Despite the strong reasons for BN to go for an early general election, there are also risks in calling for one. Some say there is more to lose than gain in calling for snap polls.
At the very least, BN is still a strong government with its 137 members in the Dewan Rakyat and its domination of the Dewan Negara.
While the nation bounced back strongly in the first quarter with 10.1% growth, the economy is expected to grow at a slower rate for the rest of the year. As of now, economic analysts say Malaysia is still expected to achieve its target of 6% growth for 2010.
But with recent fears of a double-dip recession in the global economy due to the problems plaguing Europe and the expected slowdown in China, Malaysia is not out of the woods just yet.
With the uncertainty in the economy, running blind into joint snap polls with Sarawak next year after a by-election defeat in Sibu holds some dangers. It makes more sense for BN to watch what happens in the Sarawak state election and use the rest of the term to rectify any shortcomings before holding a parliamentary election there.
The plan to “stretch” Pakatan Rakyat’s election machinery by holding a full general election next year might also not be a good idea as the opposition states need not dissolve their legislative assemblies before the expiry of the five-year term.
If Penang, Kelantan, Kedah and Selangor do not hold state elections, it will free up their election machinery to concentrate fully on parliamentary and state elections nationwide.
Also, under Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s administration, several key initiatives to improve BN’s popularity have been introduced.
The Government Transformation Programme and six National Key Results Areas are aimed at convincing voters that BN is the better government. However, these policies are only expected to meet their targets in 2012. Hence, having a snap election next year would defeat that purpose, especially if the targets are not met yet.
The final key to BN winning the next general election lies in a delimitation exercise.
During the past nine by-elections in Peninsular Malaysia, with the exception of Kuala Terengganu and Bagan Pinang, BN had suffered serious setbacks in terms of the loss of votes from non-Malay voters, and making only marginal gains among Malay voters.
And while BN has retaken Perak, polls by independent survey company Merdeka Research Centre in February 2010 showed that 41% still hold BN responsible for the heightened state of political tension in the state although 44% felt that the takeover benefited the people.
The survey showed that, as far as the voters are concerned, the issues from the Perak takeover in 2009 have not been fully resolved, and there are no signs to show that BN will win if a snap general election was called next year.
BN needs a delimitation exercise to address this anomaly. The last delimitation exercise was completed on March 21, 2003, while the next one can only commence on March 21, 2011.
With all these issues remaining unresolved heading into the 13th General Election, it makes more sense for BN to wait and see how the Election Commission redraws the boundaries before rushing into a snap general election.
Written by Chan Kok Leong
This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, July 19, 2010.
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