Thursday, September 16, 2010

From 2012 GENTING M'sia shares won't depend on Genting Highlands alone

It will soon enjoy the benefits of a global gaming pie

KUALA LUMPUR: Beginning 2012, Genting Malaysia Bhd will no longer be your domestic stock which merely depends on visitors coming up for fun rides in Genting Highlands.

It will soon enjoy the benefits of a global gaming pie when its Aqueduct Racetrack in New York is fully operational.

Genting has received its final approval to kick start works to roll out its first ever video lottery facility in the United States.

Some analysts continue to be neutral on the deal, as they feel there is minimal earnings uptick from its global expansion drive.

Based on Bloomberg’s survey, there are currently 10 analysts with a “buy” call, nine with a “hold” call and eight with a “sell” call.

As it is, there are concerns on its foray in the UK due to the difficult operating environment.

To recap, last month, Genting got the nod from its shareholders to acquire Genting UK from Genting Singapore for a cash consideration of £340mil (about RM1.67bil).

On the US foray though, KAF Research in its Aug 7 report estimated that Aqueduct could eventually contribute 4% of Genting’s 2010 net profit when all 4,500 electronic slot machines were commissioned.

This is based on the assumption of an average win per machine of US$300 per day.

This estimate is extrapolated from studying the financials of Empire City Inc’s video lottery operations, which own Monticello Casino and Raceway, the next nearest casino to Aqueduct Racetrack.

Genting’s investment for the racetrack will range between US$705mil and US$730mil, based on the US$380mil upfront licence fee and between US$325mil and US$350mil capital expenditure programme.

Assuming the US$250mil grant can be used to directly offset the capital expenditure, Genting’s net outlay will be between US$455mil and US$480mil.

“The Aqueduct deal appears promising, with its key appeal being its strategic location just two subway stops from the New York subway. Given the ready catchment surrounding Brooklyn and its proximity to the John F. Kennedy International Airport and downtown Manhattan, we believe that the Aqueduct site could be one of the most strategically-located gambling venues,” said CIMB Research in its report dated Aug 25.

Meanwhile, an analyst from DBS Research feels that the Aqueduct Racetrack should boost Genting’s 2011 to 2012 operating earnings by 5% to 19%.

“The return on investment is estimated at 17%, assuming a six-year payback period, with potential upside from introduction of table games,” he said.

The analyst added that the US$480mil project could be easily funded by Genting’s RM5.5bil cash and RM1.4bil operating cashflows per annum.

This could lead to a 6% to 9% fall in 2010 to 2011 earnings due to interest income loss. This will, however, be temporary, before turning positive in the long run.

Maybank Investment Bank Research is calling a “sell” on Genting, with its report titled: “Pouring huge sums into a tiny apple in the Big Apple”.

The Maybank analyst said it was a mere 3% earnings per share accretion, which would give a low 6% return on equity on the intended multi-billion ringgit investment in Resorts World New York.

“It is just US$29mil net profit on a US$500mil investment in New York. Our generous base case assumes US$300 win per unit per day from the 4,500 machines, exceeding the current US$286 highest in New York.

“We also assume a 35% operating margin and the US$250mil state grant is payable in cash and will off set the US$325mil development cost,” the analyst said in the report.

Maybank said a good case assumptions of 5,000 slots, US$400 win per day and 40% operating margins would see the earnings per share uplift by just 9% and return on equity by 11%.

Meanwhile, over the past month, Genting had purchased 35 million shares for RM105mil at an average price of RM3.05, bringing its treasury shares to 243 million or 4% of share capital.

Genting had mentioned that it intended to acquire up to 10% over the next 10 months.


By TEE LIN SAY
linsay@thestar.com.my

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