Tuesday, October 16, 2012

IMF sees tougher 2013 but faster growth in Asia

THE fear that Japan-China island spat threatened to turn the 2012 annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank sour, turned out to be misplaced.

It was quickly dismissed and almost forgotten by those from the advanced economies as the events drew on during the week. After all, they had more pressing matters on their plate to reckon with than the absence of People's Bank of China governor Zhao Xiachuan and Finance Minister Xie Xuren.

From day one of the meetings, they were continually swamped with less favourable updates of their region and the need for reforms to continue in Europe, even though it has been five years since the financial crisis engulfed the region.

The heat was also on the United States to ensure that it does not fall off the fiscal cliff.

Apart from a slower global growth, the IMF has warned that risks to global financial stability have also risen, which meant things are only going to get tougher till 2013, be it for Europe, emerging markets or Arab Spring economies.

Asian economies are expected to have a faster growth clip than the global economy, "but policymakers should in no way let their guard up", was the fund's managing director Christine Lagarde's terse remark.

The continued uncertainties in Europe was the main downside risk to a continued growth expansion to Asian economies.

Lagarde drew crowds to the events she chaired or attended as hopefuls awaited fresh news for the eurozone area.

Emerging markets, particularly the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India and China), walked away from the Tokyo meetings disappointed with the incomplete quota reforms that would have enabled them to have a stronger voice in the organisation.

Had it been completed with more than 85 per cent of the total voting rights, among the 188 member countries, the BRICS, with the exception of South Africa, would be in the top 10 shareholders list.

Lagarde says she sees the finish line although everyone is painfully aware that the US, with its 17 per cent, will not budge this presidential election year.

Till the changes, the monopoly in both the Bretton Woods organisations in the hands of the US and Europe will be a reminder to Asia that they have to remain focused on their regional financial integration.

The Wall Street Journal's big interview with World Bank's Jim Yong Kim was to enable him to debut in the week-long events but there was little excitement.

As someone who just took over the helm only in July this year, everyone was willing to give him a chance to work at ending poverty, creating jobs and tackling climate change.

The civil society organisations - in particular those from the emerging markets - have pledged to back him through his term in office, if he strengthened the financial capacity and even helped women.

What both the sister organisations were concerned with was to avoid a lost generation, with opportunities for expanding youth employment and averting public disgruntlement akin to Greece and Spain on the austerity drive.

Inclusive growth and employment were the main emphasis.

What did the participants take away?

A fragile confidence.

Tokyo played a perfect host, with boundless smothering courtesy and reminding visitors constantly of its painful memories of last year's tragedy in Sendai.

Tokyo's meeting was by default as Egypt was supposed to handle the event before the Arab Spring chain of events took place.

It will be a long while before an Asian capital gets to host the event again, as New Delhi, Manila, Seoul, Bangkok , Hong Kong and Singapore have already played hosts.

Latin America and Africa are likely to be on the schedule of future for the out-of-DC meetings, with Lima being the next stop in 2015.

By Rupa Damodaran, btimes.com.my

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